Investor Perceptions of Regulatory Changes and Their Impact on Investment Decisions in the Indian FMCG Sector
Author
Dr. Md. Mokhtar Alam, Barkha Kumari
Abstract
The Indian FMCG sector, ranked fourth in the national economy with a market value of approximately USD 110 billion in 2022 (IBEF, 2023), has been subject to a dense sequence of regulatory interventions over the past decade — including GST unification in 2017, expanded FSSAI enforcement, revised FDI ceilings, and tightened SEBI disclosure norms. Despite this policy density, empirical research on how investors perceive these changes and how such perceptions influence portfolio decisions remains sparse. This study addresses that gap through a quantitative, cross-sectional survey of 350 individual and institutional investors. Three null hypotheses were tested using multiple regression, one-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation. Results show that regulatory perceptions significantly and positively affect investment decisions (R² = .582, p < .001); that investor demographics — especially experience, income, and age — moderate regulatory perception (p < .05 across all three variables); and that perceived regulatory stability is strongly associated with preference for FMCG equities (r = .671, p < .001). GST rationalization, FSSAI compliance, and SEBI disclosure requirements emerged as the dominant regulatory drivers of investor confidence. The study concludes with targeted recommendations for policymakers and investors.
Keywords
Regulatory changes, FMCG sector, investor perception, investment decisions, GST, FSSAI, SEBI, behavioural finance, India
Full Text:
Download Paper PDF
References
- Akerlof, G. A. (1970). The market for lemons: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84(3), 488–500. https://doi.org/10.2307/1879431
- Bahl, S. (2012). The GST reform and its implications for consumer goods sector in India. Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, 37(1), 45–57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0256090920120104
- Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2003). A survey of behavioral finance. In G. M. Constantinides, M. Harris, & R. M. Stulz (Eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance (Vol. 1, pp. 1053–1128). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0102(03)01027-6
- Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248
- Bryman, A., & Bell, E. (2015). Business research methods (4th ed.). Oxford University Press.
- Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs. (2022). GST revenue collection trends and sectoral analysis 2021–22. Ministry of Finance, Government of India.
- Chen, X., Liu, C., & Li, S. (2018). The role of food safety regulations in shaping investor perceptions and FMCG equity valuations in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 58, 42–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2018.06.003
- Cochran, W. G. (1977). Sampling techniques (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
- Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
- Da Silva, M., & Lima, R. (2019). Consumer protection regulation and FMCG investment attractiveness in emerging markets: Evidence from Brazil. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(4), 892–908. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1531555
- Damodaran, A. (2012). Investment valuation: Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
- Deloitte India. (2022). Indian FMCG sector: Navigating the regulatory landscape. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India LLP.
- Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
- Food Safety and Standards Authority of India. (2022). Annual report 2021–22: Strengthening the food safety ecosystem. FSSAI, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.
- Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Huang, H. (2009). Investor competence, trading frequency, and home bias. Management Science, 55(7), 1094–1106. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1009
- Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523–564. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv050
- Gupta, A., & Agarwal, N. (2018). Regulatory predictability and sectoral equity allocation: Evidence from Indian mutual fund managers. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(8), 23–38. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i8/130540
- Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., & Anderson, R. E. (2019). Multivariate data analysis (8th ed.). Cengage Learning.
- Indian Brand Equity Foundation. (2023). FMCG industry in India. IBEF, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India. https://www.ibef.org/industry/fmcg
- Jain, R., & Misra, V. (2020). FSSAI enforcement actions and FMCG equity market reactions: An event study analysis. IIMB Management Review, 32(2), 113–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2019.11.004
- Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. Journal of Finance, 67(1), 45–83. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01707.x
- Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
- Kumar, A., & Goyal, N. (2015). GST and Indian FMCG stocks: Market reaction to parliamentary developments. Finance India, 29(3), 781–798.
- Lusardi, A., & Mitchell, O. S. (2014). The economic importance of financial literacy: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1), 5–44. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.1.5
- Ministry of Finance, Government of India. (2022). Economic survey 2021–22: Economic outlook and policy review. Department of Economic Affairs. https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/
- Mohanty, B., & Misra, S. (2005). Investor reactions to regulatory changes in FII investment norms: Evidence from Indian equity markets. Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, 30(4), 53–66.
- National Stock Exchange of India. (2022). NSE market pulse: FMCG sector performance and regulatory impact analysis 2022. NSE Publications.
- North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678
- Nunnally, J. C. (1978). Psychometric theory (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
- Peltzman, S. (1976). Toward a more general theory of regulation. Journal of Law and Economics, 19(2), 211–240. https://doi.org/10.1086/466865
- (2017). GST and FMCG: Assessing the transition impact on India's consumer goods industry. PwC India.
- Reserve Bank of India. (2017). Report of the household finance committee. RBI Publications. https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?ID=885
- Saunders, M., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2019). Research methods for business students (8th ed.). Pearson Education.
- Securities and Exchange Board of India. (2022). SEBI annual report 2021–22. Securities and Exchange Board of India. https://www.sebi.gov.in/reports-and-statistics/annual-reports/
- Securities and Exchange Board of India. (2023). SEBI annual report 2022–23. Securities and Exchange Board of India. https://www.sebi.gov.in/reports-and-statistics/annual-reports/
- Sehgal, S., & Jain, R. (2011). SEBI regulatory announcements and stock market reactions: Asymmetric evidence from India. Decision, 38(2), 3–22.
- Sharma, P., & Singh, R. (2019). Post-GST profitability analysis of Indian FMCG companies: Evidence from panel data. Journal of Commerce and Accounting Research, 8(2), 14–25.
- Shleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient markets: An introduction to behavioral finance. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198292279.001.0001
- Stigler, G. J. (1971). The theory of economic regulation. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 2(1), 3–21. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003160
- Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information. American Economic Review, 71(3), 393–410.
- Williamson, O. E. (2000). The new institutional economics: Taking stock, looking ahead. Journal of Economic Literature, 38(3), 595–613. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.3.595
Share your valuable work from Social Media Buttons